The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Changes on External Trade Balance in Sudan: Testing J-Curve Hypothesis

Ahmed Abdu Allah IBRAHIM, Mohamed Sharif BASHIR


The current research article analyzes the impact of changes in real exchange rate upon external trade balance of Sudan during the period 1978-2017.  It employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, impulse response functions and Granger causality test. The empirical findings indicate that exchange rate devaluations have no impact on the merchandize trade balance, thus evidence in favor of the J-curve pattern was not found. Granger causality test runs one-way from trade ratio to real exchange rate and not the other way. Thus, the results can be considered as an additional contribution to evidence stated in literature that focused a vibrant range of economies. These findings are appropriate for policy making in Sudan as well as in various developing countries since the focal point is major trade balance deficit.


Exchange rate, trade balance, J-curve hypothesis, Bound test, ARDL approach.

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